The valuation of the stock is based on Musk doing what he’s always done, which is making seemingly impossible promises sometime in the future.
You know what he promised by 2025? A fleet of driverless Tesla taxis. xAI producing the first AGI. A human being on Mars planting a flag.
You know what the evaluation of SpaceX is based on? The promise of a Mars colony with one million human inhabitants, and space-based data centers. It’s going to be decades before it’s worth the IPO, if ever.
In the meantime SpaceX is in debt 20 billion, and is bleeding money. It lost $4.94 billion in 2025.
So it looks to me like a private equity project. Like Toys 'R Us or Radio Shack or Claire’s. Remember those?
And Nasdaq-100 is fast-tracking SpaceX into its portfolio after 15 days. Soon, pension funds and 401(k)s are going to feature SpaceX stocks. So when it does implode, a lot of worker-class folk are going to eat the loss.
You know who I bet will not be eating the loss? Trillionaire Elon Musk.
Jesus Christ thank you for reminding me to confirm I keep his shit as far away from my pension as possible. Thankfully I’m in Canada so I feel there’s a hope
Narrator: He was wrong.
Disagree with my pension and my RRSP I do have options for how I want to distribute my investments for example focusing on Canada or Europe or BRIC for investments or even dumping your money into a less risky but more stable money market. They’re pretty diverse now.
Other guys comment, and the note about pension funds, is more about how things like the CPP will invest in SpaceX – as will many ETF/bundled type ‘funds’ that people use. Things practically outside your control.
Yes, you and others can invest your personal wealth into whatever you want. But your gov old age stuff will invest into stuff like SpaceX regardless, and be exposed to potential risks should things collapse catastrophically.
CPP is mandated to make a set return for the Canadian people and it’s pretty loose on now they do that. I agree it’s concerning them looking at morally questionable companies but money wants to make money and I would argue Canadians care more about having money for their retirement than they do the companies they’re investing in.
Case in point since Trump 45 we should have been collectively divesting in America yes we haven’t. American companies even hostile ones still have a huge economic edge. I expect the CPP to be pragmatic and not invest based on their morals all the time. That makes for bad finances. Sucks but sadly this is the world.
So the narrator was correct?
For all his false promises: https://elonmusk.today/
Looks like the webmaster (do people still use that word?) is asleep at the wheel there.
Last update 266 days ago.
Good point
Soon, pension funds and 401(k)s are going to feature SpaceX stocks.
Not mine. I’m selling my NASDAQ index fund next week. Thankfully the S&P said no.
This is probably the single most important thing we plebs can do.
My favorite part about data centers in space is it may actually be impossible from a physics standpoint to build the heat radiators large enough for even a small one. Even though space is cold and would seem to make sense, it is also a destructive vacuum and to radiate even a small amount of heat outside of a shielded core would take a huge array of radiators
No, it’s totally possible. Not with any technology we’ve ever built, maybe not with any technology we can build, but physics doesn’t preclude it outright.
Your point still stands though. It’s a promise that’s impossible to meet within the lifetime of the investors.
It’s possible, but not economical.
For basically any “space datacenter” scenario, imagine putting that same thing in a vast desert instead. You’ll find it’s easier and an order of magnitude cheaper.
Yeah, maybe not impossible, but I mean extremely unlikely. I found a thread on reddit that had examples and a spreadsheet https://www.reddit.com/r/IsaacArthur/comments/11kp7s4/how_large_of_a_heatradiator_would_a_spacecraft/
To run a data center in space you would need some kind of reactor producing around 100 MW. If rejecting 100 MW at 800 K
A= 100,000,000 / 0.85×5.670374419e−8×800
The number is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant (σ) https://physics.knox.edu/OnlineHW/zTest-PhysicalConstants.html
A≈5,065 m²
So roughly:
5,100 m² of radiating surface
That is a square about:
√(5065) ≈71 m per side
If it is a double-sided radiator panel, the physical panel area could be about half:
2,530 m² of panel, about 50 m × 50 m, assuming both sides radiate effectively.
Also temperature matters enormously so
At emissivity 0.85:
Radiator temp Area for 100 MW 300 K ~256,000 m² 500 K ~33,200 m² 800 K ~5,100 m² So the answer is about 5,000 m² (lol this is like “a football field” on each side) at 800 K, but balloons to absurd levels like hundreds of thousands of m² if you are trying to dump room-temperature waste heat which there would be a significant amount of. That is for a single small data center at current power needs. In the US alone data centers use 176 TWh (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48646), so there is no chance we are going to be migrating a significant portion of it into space.
800K is 526C! You can’t run a datacenter at that.
80C (still very hot for datacenter hardware coolant) is 350K. And there are other challenges, like effects from being in LEO, or proximity to wherever the solar array is.
And this is just one of MANY ridiclous engineering challenges. Another great example is that GPUs, memory, and SSDs get random bit flips in orbit, and the issue gets worse with smaller lithography: https://www.itpro.com/server-storage/high-performance-computing-hpc/367323/hpes-supercomputer-helps-iss-astronauts
There’s tons of spam about “solving” this after the Tech Bro boom, but I don’t really buy anything I’ve seen. Nothing but a bunch of lead (or the Earth’s atmosphere) is going to stop fat gamma rays or extremely fast nuclei.
800K is 526C! You can’t run a datacenter at that.
Yeah, the temperature was an estimate for the nuclear reactor that would be needed lol, I tried to explain that most of the datacenter would be closer to room temperature which would require absurd sizes of radiators
To be fair, 100MW is pretty big.
AI doesn’t actually need that much. I’m pretty sure entire models like GLM 5.2 or Deepseek v4 are trained (and served) on a much, much smaller scale than a 100MW cluster.
But if that’s the case… why even invest in orbital data centers in the first place?
Why not desert ones? Why all this cash there instead of actually improving LLM architectures!?
There are so many nested levels of absurdity here. It’s all just total mania, with zero punishment to those doing the funding because they are too rich to feel any consequences.
FPO: future promise offering
Elon musk also made seemingly impossible promises for Tesla and their stock price, and he exceeded them.
He didn’t deliver on any promise except the stock price itself that’s pumped up by lies and idiots believing in it.
That was the main promise lol
What technology promise did he make that he kept?
His promise of self-driving cars turned into a huge pile of accidents, especially since he insisted (still insists) that autopilot operate on a single sensor. Waymo uses five.
It’s not like his companies did nothing. Getting his launch vehicles to land safely, vertically, was way cool, but a small step on the way to space colonies or space tourism.
He promised to get teslas share price and sales figures etc to a seemingly impossible level, and he exceeded it which is why he was then due his gigantic pay packet that the courts then ridiculously blocked. You guys are doing the same thing to SpaceX as you did for Tesla, and the results will be the same - you’ll look foolish.
FSD on Teslas is insane. It’s demonstrably safer than real drivers. It doesn’t use a single sensor, it uses a single type of sensor, which has proven to be more than good enough.
Calling reusable self landing rockets a “small step” is beyond a joke. It’s probably the single biggest innovation in space travel since space travel has been a thing.
Tesla FSD is not safer than real drivers. All robotaxis are level 4 at most, so it’s an “apples vs oranges” thing. It’s like saying trains are safer than real drivers. By all accounts, the Tesla robotaxis are the worst that exist, and they’re barely being used where they’ve been rolled out.
I will give credit that Tesla forced other car manufacturers to innovate, but they’re outclassed in every way now.
FSD is a better driver than most people.
Sure would be nice to have some food, affordable housing, and healthcare…
Get out of here, fracking lazy SOCIALIST!! 😡
They keep going around trying to make the world a better place. Awful hateful people.
Right??! Frack them!!
Y’all just need to pull yourself up by the bootstraps
Down 6%.
The line wiggled a bit.
I think you mean PLUNGED or DECIMATED!
/s
Also I’m sick of these words in titles. As you said it’s barely a ripple overall.
TBi slams sensationalist headlines!
Well, and 5% the day before, and likely another 10% by the time it shakes out.
Morningstar puts the price at $62/share, so that’s a possibility there.
I get it. I have a uniquely shaped rock that I found in a ditch. I value that thing at about 530 billion dollars. /s
Does it repel tigers?
Absolutely!!
Then I don’t want it. I want to attract tigers.
You sound like one of them demoncrats 🤨
Only under water
I will buy this rock.
The reflecting pool is now full of underwater tigers tasked with stalking the algae. The price has quadrupled.
Former world’s first trillionaire
The other day I made a comment on the original IPO post saying that he isn’t a trillionaire because the IPO isn’t promising anything and got argued with about it.
Even Goldman Sachs was saying the IPO was ridiculous.
Everyone involved in this entire affair was an idiot. XAI has absolutely no product to speak of, where’s the valuation coming from?
But you have to understand, if we regulated these people, THEY WOULD LEAVE! then what would we do?
OH THE HUMANITY! WHAT WOULD WE DO WITHOUT THE BILLIONAIRES!!?!
Interestingly enough enough places in the world have attempted to tax billionaires that we do have some data. For the most part they don’t leave.
They can afford the tax anyway, and really the whole point of money, as far as their concerned, is to just throw it at people to solve problems for them. They don’t want to pay extra tax on principle because they don’t think other people should get their money, but they also don’t actually care enough to go to the effort to leaving.
Besides where would they go?
Just imagine how many problems 600bn USD would solve. Instead, it’s just fake virtual currency flowing through the hands of a few billionaires
They could probably just about clean a small pond for that amount of money.
They could put a mirror finish on the bottom and fill it with quick set epoxy.
Money isn’t real.
Mine certainly isn’t.
Once again, wealth trickles up to the billionaires.
Capitalism! Gotta love it, or not.
I choose ‘not’
I got my stupid 111€ profit from the stupid shares after selling it off.
Hope it dies in a fire.Every 5 years or so, I get an $80US residuals check from my uncle’s estate. Hey, it’s a couple bottles of decent wine.
beautiful
SpaceX on Tuesday disclosed it would acquire Cursor for $60 billion in stock, representing roughly 3.4% dilution—meaning investor stakes will represent a smaller percentage of the company—of SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion IPO valuation.
I never understood this. Dilution should require a vote from owners.
You vote by selling your stock if you disagree.
Are more than 50% of shares not owned by Musk? If not, a vote wouldn’t even matter.
What about indication of change? I.E. ability to sell before dilution.
Dilution should require a vote from owners.
Would it be helpful if that had been written into the company’s AoI and server software?
This is the usual fleecing of the retail investors by the institutional sponsors.
The only people surprised are the retail investors.
nice. i love seeing fElon companies doing badly!
Art of the deal.
Removed by mod
Spam
“Report Created”
xAI buried inside SpaceX wasn’t enough to make them uncomfortable?
It’s a fucking meme, for “tech bros”. Apart from anything else how can lose more than most stocks are worth, and still have a share value of more than many, even most, stocks?
It’s worse than that… what they IPO with is basically a tiny percentage of SpaceX composed solely of xAI
The entire stock market is basically 99.9% blind speculation and 0.1% basic math, which is why it rarely makes sense
That’s what I was referencing, I’m surprised the regulators and the exchange let that happen
You are surprised that the people doing this during Occupy Wall Street are allowing this?
Who is that
One of several people standing on a balcony overlooking an Occupy Wall Street protest in 2011. This woman specifically was at the time believed to be an employee of National Bank but I don’t know if they were ever identified individually.
It disturbs me that my first thought was “facial recognition exists now”.
This timeline is cursed
there are no rules anymore man… they just change them to rig the game in plain light… no ill consequences for the rich
It’s not even a surprise, this is from SpaceX s-1 document: only 7% of their estimated valuation is from Space related activities
Is “Enterprise Applications” like shooting datacenters into space, or copilot business edition?
I think the “Space-Enabled Solutions” part sounds more like designing satellites than the space-launch business.They bought Cursor for AI. Earlier this year cursor switched to pay per use model, so now every engineer is spending dozens to hundreds of AI Bucks. I don’t think Cursor is profitable on that yet, but I imagine xAI are looking to scale that model, both to turn Grok into something that earns an income, and to scale up to profit despite cost of datacenters/training.
I’m skeptical there is really a profitable market, but it might be the most grounded of his predictions. The technology exists, the business model is successful at a small scale, so they just need to scale
The technology exists, the business model is successful at a small scale, so they just need to scale
could you provide details on that?
You could probably research the company but from my direct experience
- Cursor is one of the stronger contenders for coding - bringing a variety of models to tools where coders are.
- Cursor switched to pay per use, significantly increasing costs and didn’t lose customers
- cursor charged more for higher end models and didn’t lose customers
- grok is not currently there, or at least not what I can see, so is a huge gap from an xAI perspective
- it seems good enough business model to business people to be worth a huge purchase
Once grok is added to Cursor, I will just have it, along with a variety of other models, and can simply choose it based on cost and effectiveness. It may even be chosen for me since I usually leave it in automatic, and my company is a paying customer where each engineer spends a budget
Also it’s more like a subscription. Software companies love a subscription model with regular income, rather than selling something you pay for once
The entire stock market is basically 99.9% blind speculation and 0.1% basic math
The US, England, and Japan are all returning to quantitative easing policy. So we’ve once again got too much money chasing too few investments. What a lot of naive investors see as a market bubble is recognized among the more savvy as a return to our ongoing policy of asset inflation.
A lot of what SpaceX is selling boils down to an access point to public spending - through sale of military hardware and equipment, network access to Starlink, and R&D funds allocated to the private sector. That’s what is really driving investment. It is, in effect, a play on the future of police and military spending.
Still wildly overvalued imho. But not “blind” speculation.
So we’ve once again got too much money chasing too few investments.
maybe it’s time to redistribute that too much money. lets free them from their burden.
Can’t do that. That’s Communism. Communism Killed 10 Trillion People.
The corporate governance arrangements (or lack thereof) should be enough to make any investor with two functioning brain cells stay well clear. But the stock market has lost all touch with reality long ago. The crash will be brutal. And small investors will hold the bag, as per standard procedure.
