Vibe coding is collapsing the distance between idea and deployment. But the real risk is whether your company has the judgment system to govern what AI can now build.
right nowthey’re basically discovering what are real uses and what’s frivolous non-value add uses.
at least as used for software development, the past 12 months didn’t get slightly better, it got dramatically night to day better.
simultaneously, some pretty significant advances have been made at reducing costs of delivering value. I think this is hitting hardest in basic chatbot areas, getting the simple answers cheaper - in programming not as clearly, yeah it’s getting the simple answers cheaper there too, but it’s also succeeding at getting much more complex answers that just weren’t possible even a few months ago - those answers cost more, but they’re also worth more… will be interesting to see where this all shakes out.
Yeah, they are running loss leader stuff, yeah it’s going to go up in price when they figure out what its worth to people, because things aren’t priced at what they cost to make or deliver, things are priced at what people are willing to pay. The players with the deep pockets are jockeying for control of future markets, they’re investing their existing wealth in future power. Let’s hope the winners are slightly less ghoulish than our Oil barons.
Let’s hope the winners are slightly less ghoulish than our Oil barons.
What a foolish hope!
$200,000,000,000 debt.
Who well pay it?
You talk like gravity doesn’t exist!
You’re wrong if you think that it won’t be heavily reliant AI customers like software companies who spend five years removing codewriting skills from their workforce and building up technical debt in their codebase because no one has to understand it in those five years and there’s a lot of subtle, hard to spot bugs that got through code review because humans simply don’t make those kinds of errors and no one ever had to spot one in their life before claude came along.
Did you think that enshitification wouldn’t affect the product? Yesterday’s computers and cars were easy to disassemble to replace parts. Now it’s much, much harder, and it’s very common to void your warranty if you do that. Today’s ai generated code is easy to tinker with and you can do what you like with your end product. Why would it stay that way? Why wouldn’t they engineer it to make that harder? It’s not difficult to make code confusing by changing variable names. I could fuck up your codebase for humans by simply swapping names like productSKU and customerID, let alone writing obfuscated code for any purpose whatsoever and with whatever variable names I like.
Some software companies are outsourcing their talent to AI behemoths with mountains of debt to recoup. Guess who’s going to pay the debt! And what’s the point of such a company in the long run? Why are you speedrunning paying to replace yourself?
There will be an AI crash and “consolidation”, meaning a switch to monopolies or near monopolies. Some companies are shedding institutional knowledge and programming skill like it was waste water. Once dependence comes, value extraction will follow it like disease follows unvaccinated infection.
There is already $200bn in debt and growing rapidly. The shareholders aren’t going to be paying it. The ai customers are.
Three things here:
right nowthey’re basically discovering what are real uses and what’s frivolous non-value add uses.
at least as used for software development, the past 12 months didn’t get slightly better, it got dramatically night to day better.
simultaneously, some pretty significant advances have been made at reducing costs of delivering value. I think this is hitting hardest in basic chatbot areas, getting the simple answers cheaper - in programming not as clearly, yeah it’s getting the simple answers cheaper there too, but it’s also succeeding at getting much more complex answers that just weren’t possible even a few months ago - those answers cost more, but they’re also worth more… will be interesting to see where this all shakes out.
Yeah, they are running loss leader stuff, yeah it’s going to go up in price when they figure out what its worth to people, because things aren’t priced at what they cost to make or deliver, things are priced at what people are willing to pay. The players with the deep pockets are jockeying for control of future markets, they’re investing their existing wealth in future power. Let’s hope the winners are slightly less ghoulish than our Oil barons.
What a foolish hope!
$200,000,000,000 debt.
Who well pay it?
You talk like gravity doesn’t exist!
You’re wrong if you think that it won’t be heavily reliant AI customers like software companies who spend five years removing codewriting skills from their workforce and building up technical debt in their codebase because no one has to understand it in those five years and there’s a lot of subtle, hard to spot bugs that got through code review because humans simply don’t make those kinds of errors and no one ever had to spot one in their life before claude came along.
Did you think that enshitification wouldn’t affect the product? Yesterday’s computers and cars were easy to disassemble to replace parts. Now it’s much, much harder, and it’s very common to void your warranty if you do that. Today’s ai generated code is easy to tinker with and you can do what you like with your end product. Why would it stay that way? Why wouldn’t they engineer it to make that harder? It’s not difficult to make code confusing by changing variable names. I could fuck up your codebase for humans by simply swapping names like productSKU and customerID, let alone writing obfuscated code for any purpose whatsoever and with whatever variable names I like.
Some software companies are outsourcing their talent to AI behemoths with mountains of debt to recoup. Guess who’s going to pay the debt! And what’s the point of such a company in the long run? Why are you speedrunning paying to replace yourself?
There will be an AI crash and “consolidation”, meaning a switch to monopolies or near monopolies. Some companies are shedding institutional knowledge and programming skill like it was waste water. Once dependence comes, value extraction will follow it like disease follows unvaccinated infection.
There is already $200bn in debt and growing rapidly. The shareholders aren’t going to be paying it. The ai customers are.